Every week, we will scour Europe’s top five leagues in search of draws.
“Why draws?” you might ask. Well, draws account for anywhere between 23 and 25 percent of outcomes in league play, statistically. That is to say, on average, one in every four matches in most leagues will likely end with the points shared. That’s only half the story, however.
If you’re like me, you don’t really have the patience to wait for ten matches to play out in order to maybe get a pay-out. So, the risk we will incur by betting on draws is mitigated by the fact we are waiting on fewer outcomes.
Also, for any given match, ‘X’ has the largest odds on offer; that’s an inefficiency in the system we can take advantage of. High risk, high reward, even without needing to stake a large amount of money.
Please note: at the end of the day, this is a second opinion from a stranger online. So, ultimately, trust your own discretion in selecting which picks to take.
So, let’s get cracking, shall we?
Valencia v Celta Vigo (X at 3.20)
Valencia is having a rotten season in La Liga. Sure, owner Peter Lim has stripped the club of their prize playing assets, but the quality remaining in the squad is still better than 13th.
They host Celta Vigo this weekend on the back of a sorry 2-0 defeat at the hands of Real Madrid. Los Che offered very little fight against the reigning champions and were flattered by the scoreline in truth.
Visitors, Celta have rescued themselves after a rocky start to the season, and are now up in ninth under the guidance of Chucho Coudet.
Why have I backed the draw here? No team has drawn more on the road in La Liga than Celta, and they are weirdly uncompetitive away from Balaidos.
Ordinarily, Valencia would be able to see them off on their home patch, but Los Che has drawn almost half of their home fixtures this season, and are a shadow of themselves.
Freiburg v Union Berlin (X at 3.15)
After a blistering start that had many dreaming of a place in Europe, Union Berlin has been jolted back to reality. Their form has completed cratered: winless in five Bundesliga games, as a number of injuries in attack have finally caught up with them.
Freiburg, who beat Borussia Dortmund a fortnight ago, will surely fancy themselves to win at home against such out-of-form opponents. Christian Streich’s side are strong on their own patch, having only lost twice there all season. It’s almost like they are a different team at the Schwarzwald-Stadion.
That seems to suggest a home win, but I’m going to show a little faith in Union. They remain a good side hampered by their inability to score, and when they lose they are only doing so by the odd goal. I think they can keep it tight at the back here and take a point.
Genoa v Hellas Verona (X at 3.05)
I have a lot of time for the work Ivan Juric has done at Verona over the last two seasons. Despite his defence being cannibalized last summer, he has rebuilt impressively, and Verona boasts the third-best defence in Serie A.
They travel to face in-form Genoa, who have not lost in five and have doubled their total tally of wins for the season in that time. Along the way, they took points off both Atalanta and Napoli; they are not to be taken lightly.
However, it is easy to see how this game will go. Even with Mattia Destro, Genoa does not quite have the firepower to break down Verona, and the visitors will be only too happy to take a point on their travels.
Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen (X at 3.60)
The Bundesliga seems to be the republic of draws lately, so we return there for our final pick. Goal difference separates these sides on the table, and that should lend itself to a tight affair when they meet on Sunday.
Hoffenheim are the portrait of inconsistency, capable of stunning results and embarrassing defeats in equal measure on any given day. However, they are not up to much at home, and that should help our decision-making, especially against a Bremen side that are better on the road.
Hoffenheim dominated the reverse fixture but only got a point to show for it; the pressure will be all on them this time to make the play. Bremen, one of the best defensive teams in the Bundesliga, can definitely frustrate them.
Code (Total Odds: 110.67): LUW9N
