Every week, we will look into Europe’s top five leagues in search of straight draws.
Look, I am nothing if not persistent. Another couple of late swings made me look like a failure last weekend, but here I am, back on the wagon again. Thankfully, Newcastle versus Wolves came through, so it was not a total waste.
So, this is the deal. Let us try this market one more time. If we don’t get a better result, we’ll look into another market entirely.
Please note: at the end of the day, everything here is a second opinion from a stranger online. So, ultimately, trust your discretion in selecting which picks to go with.
Koln VS Werder Bremen (X at 3.10)
Solid form at the end of January seemed to put Koln on the path to safety, but recently Markus Gisdol’s side has slid into bad form. They’ve lost three games consecutively and four points separate them from an automatic relegation spot in the Bundesliga.
The visitors, Werder Bremen are five points better off but struggling with inconsistency in their form. One week, they’re dropping points against whipping boys Schalke 04, the next they’re beating Eintracht Frankfurt. What to make of them?
I’m going to back both sides to share the spoils here, simply because it is a result that would suit them both. Koln has only won once at home this season, but Bremen is not to be trusted under any circumstances.
Real Valladolid VS Getafe (X at 2.80)
This is a hack to predicting draws: meetings between low-scoring teams always have a high probability of ending in a draw. That’s why this is so attractive, and perhaps why the odds on a draw aren’t big.
Real Valladolid played out an abomination of a game last week against Celta Vigo; a truly nonsense football match. I’m backing them to do it again, especially considering who their opponents are. Getafe players are thugs when it comes to football. There’s no nicer way to put it. They claw and kick and bite, all in service of getting the result.
When these sides met in La Liga in January, Valladolid won but Getafe is in better form now. So, it is going to be a war of attrition. Do yourself a favour and don’t bother watching.
Real Sociedad VS Levante (X at 4.30)
A meeting of two entertaining sides which promises to be quite the spectacle.
Real Sociedad have only themselves to blame for their draw with Real Madrid on Monday. Dropping deeper and deeper was only going to invite trouble. However, they can be encouraged by the fact that, for large portions of that game, they were superior.
They will hope to bounce back to winning ways this weekend, but Levante can be quite stubborn. They frustrated Atletico Madrid twice in a week, and held out against Athletic Club the last time out, despite facing an onslaught in the second half.
Real Sociedad are priced far too short for the win here, especially because Levante has not lost any of the last four meetings between the two teams. I think it’ll be much more a competitive match than the odds suggest. And, the odds on a draw are particularly juicy here.
Brighton VS Leicester (X at 3.25)
Poor Leicester City. One week, you’re sitting comfortably within the top four, the next all your attackers are injured and you’re struggling to regain form as you slip beneath the wave.
The Foxes were outplayed against Arsenal and Burnley in their last two Premier League games. Brendan Rodgers is hard-pressed to come up with attacking solutions. Defensively, he is also without Wesley Fofana, who had been a rock since joining last summer.
If it’s any consolation, hosts Brighton cannot hit a barn door themselves. The Seagulls’ woes in front of goal are well documented, and that might play into Leicester’s hands if they look to sit deep and then strike on the break.
I fancy Brighton will dominate proceedings, but I expect their attacking incompetence will continue, ultimately depriving them of the victory they’ll otherwise merit.